TL;DR
- New Investment: SoftBank is in talks to invest an additional $30 billion in OpenAI, just weeks after completing a $41 billion commitment.
- Valuation Impact: The investment would be part of a $100 billion funding round that could value OpenAI at $830 billion.
- Financial Pressure: OpenAI faces estimated cash burn rates of $17 billion in 2026, with expenses potentially climbing to $40 billion by 2028.
- Market Reaction: SoftBank shares rose 3.5% in Tokyo morning trade as investors viewed the aggressive AI expansion strategy favorably.
SoftBank opened talks to invest as much as an additional $30 billion in OpenAI, doubling down on the ChatGPT maker just weeks after completing a $41 billion commitment for an 11% stake. (first reported to be $40 billion)
The new investment would be part of a $100 billion funding round that could value OpenAI at $830 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.
Previous Investment Context
SoftBank’s return to negotiations stands in sharp contrast to its recent financial strain. In December, SoftBank completed a $41 billion investment in OpenAI, securing an 11% stake. Reuters reported that Masayoshi Son scrambled to marshal funds for that investment, slowing other dealmaking at SoftBank’s Vision Fund to a crawl.
According to a source familiar with the matter, Son’s strategy was described as “all-in,” reflecting how the commitment strained the company’s finances at a time when Son had made AI a core strategic focus for SoftBank. This rapid return to the negotiating table signals how fiercely the race for AI dominance is accelerating.
Promo
For Son, this positions SoftBank to secure a larger ownership stake before OpenAI’s valuation climbs further. It also underscores the financial pressure of maintaining competitive positioning in an industry where funding needs are escalating rapidly.
SoftBank shares were up 3.5% in Tokyo morning trade on Tuesday. The gain suggested investors viewed the company’s aggressive AI expansion strategy favorably, despite the financial strain from the December investment.
OpenAI’s Financial Pressures
Meanwhile, OpenAI faces mounting challenges that make this fresh capital increasingly urgent. The company is grappling with rising costs to train and run AI models as competition from Alphabet’s Google intensifies.
OpenAI is expected to spend around $8 billion in 2025, with expenses potentially climbing to $40 billion by 2028. Cash burn rates are estimated at around $17 billion in 2026, raising questions about the company’s runway without fresh capital.
It shows “how difficult it is for newer AI-focused companies to compete financially with long-established technology giants,” Sebastian Mallaby, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in analysis warning that OpenAI could run out of cash by mid-2027.
The projected fivefold increase in spending from $8 billion to $40 billion over three years far exceeds typical scaling curves in the tech industry. This reflects the capital-intensive nature of frontier AI development. Such burn rates create structural dependency on investors like SoftBank willing to commit tens of billions without near-term profit expectations.
Ownership Structure
These financial pressures intersect with a shifting ownership structure among OpenAI’s major backers. Microsoft currently holds close to 27% of OpenAI, compared with SoftBank’s roughly 11% stake after the December investment. The additional funding would narrow that gap, positioning SoftBank as a larger shareholder in the AI company.
This ownership structure reflects the intense competition among tech giants and major investors to secure stakes in leading AI companies. The narrowing gap between Microsoft and SoftBank creates competitive tension around OpenAI’s strategic direction, particularly as Microsoft maintains its own AI infrastructure through Azure while SoftBank pursues complementary investments in chip design and robotics.
To fund this AI expansion, SoftBank has fundamentally restructured its portfolio. The company divested its stake in Nvidia valued at $5.8 billion in 2025 to help fund its AI bets.
Beyond OpenAI, SoftBank has acquired chip designer Ampere Computing and upped investments in areas such as ABB’s robotics arm in 2025, signaling a comprehensive push into AI infrastructure and applications.
Strategic Context
The investment in OpenAI extends beyond competitive positioning to national strategic interests. The investment aligns with Masayoshi Son’s broader AI ambitions for SoftBank Group.
Both companies are investors in the Stargate initiative, which executives say is central to the US government’s ambitions to keep ahead of China in AI. The initiative represents a commitment of hundreds of billions of dollars to AI infrastructure development.
“We are deeply aligned with OpenAI’s vision of ensuring AGI benefits all of humanity,”
Son’s focus on artificial general intelligence reflects a long-term bet on advanced AI capabilities rather than near-term profitability.
The convergence of these factors positions 2026 as a defining year for both companies. OpenAI must demonstrate that its revenue growth can eventually catch up to its spending trajectory, while SoftBank’s successive investments test whether multi-billion dollar capital commitments can secure meaningful influence in shaping the future of artificial intelligence.
The outcome will determine not just the companies’ financial fortunes, but the competitive balance in AI development as the race to artificial general intelligence intensifies.